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Opinions represent GIS’ opinion as of the date of this report and are for general information purposes only and are not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of any individual security, market sector or the markets generally. The information in this report was prepared by Global Investment Strategy. WFII is a registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a bank affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company. Global Investment Strategy (GIS) is a division of Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Inc. In addition, every meeting will be accompanied by a press conference. *Indicates the meeting is associated with a summary of economic projections. July 27 | September 21*| November 2 | December 14* There was one vote against the policy action, Esther George, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by. The FOMC median projections show higher inflation expectations for 2022, moving from 4.3% at the March meeting to 5.2%, while also decreasing the Committee’s expectation for real economic growth for the year from 2.8% in March to 1.7%. The terminal rate expectation assumes several 50- or 75-basis-point rate hikes in the second half of 2022 and throughout 2023. This is above the longer-term neutral rate expectation of 2.5%. The median FOMC projection for the terminal federal funds rate during this cycle is 3.8%.
We are forecasting additional interest rate hikes in 20 to allow the federal funds rate to range between 3.25% – 3.50% by year-end 2023. The FOMC considers that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate. With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective. The committee is highly attentive to inflation risks. The Russia-Ukraine war is creating additional upward pressure on inflation and weighing on economic activity. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances due to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging slower in the first quarter. The committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities in accordance with its statement released last May. The Federal Reserve (Fed) expects ongoing increases to the federal funds rate. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the federal funds rate by.
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